Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
